A by-election in the predecessor seat to Tamowrth in 1996 saw a Tory majority of 12.5 per cent become a 31.6 per cent Labour one.
But he looks to be a stronger candidate than he did four years ago, when he first stood to be West Midlands Mayor.
The first in a series of pieces on how the 2017 generation of winners from Labour increased their majorities.
Our region-by-region survey of possible key seats continues with a look at what is shaping up to be one of the key head-to-head confrontations between the Tories and Labour.
People did not feel committed to their current party. The next election was, they hoped, a long way away, by which time much could have changed.
People are not yet at the point where they believe the party in government needs kicking out; they are still willing to give us a hearing.
The shock over the overall result has distracted us from how remarkable some of each party’s gains really were.
Labour do less well when figures are based on information about who has probably turned out to vote are used. The party’s turnout, then, will be crucial to the result.
Continuing our ConservativeHome series on the key contests in each region or nation.
Plus: Eleven candidates selected elsewhere, including Gillian Keegan in Chichester and Kemi Badenoch in Saffron Walden.
Plus the details of other seats selecting this evening.
Latest news from round the country.
In the final article of our mini-series, the Onward Director says that there must also be a new strategy to help boost Britain’s productivity rate.