Indeed, the former leads the latter by a nose. Crabb’s support is low, Fox’s has collapsed, and Gove is becalmed.
If her experience at the Home Office makes offering broad-strokes guarantees difficult, then the Home Secretary should set out her position in detail.
The status of EU migrants living in the UK is something she would “factor that into the negotiations”.
What evidence is there that you can increase the Party’s electoral reach? Would you bring back liberal interventionism? Would you appoint George Osborne to your Cabinet?
The Home Secretary’s camp seems to grasp that she can only win with legitimacy if the contest goes all the way – and she defeats a pro-Leave candidate fair and square.
An under-reported contributor to this week’s events is that they aren’t getting enough sleep.
Fox looks marooned. Gove is fighting to stay afloat…and the wind is in the sails of the Energy Minister.
Shouldn’t the next Prime Minister be a Leave supporter? Do you support local authorities setting up new selective schools? Will you serve a full term if you win in 2020?
But it is too soon to write his obituary.
Today, the Home Secretary’s distance and difference from the two men who have run the Government and the two others who planned to succeed them is serving her in good stead.
“If ever there was a time for a Prime Minister who is ready and able to do the job from day one, this is it.”
“Our country needs strong, proven leadership – to steer us through this period of economic and political uncertainty, and to negotiate the best possible terms as we leave the European Union.”
Great entertainment, perhaps; baleful overtones for Party and country, certainly.
The case for May. Which candidate in these momentous times can you imagine dealing best with the likes of Obama, Merkel and Putin – or terror attacks?