Pandemic and war, like two horsemen of the Apocalypse, leave the Chancellor scrabbling for a response.
If the war lasts a few years at most, the Chancellor can take the hit. If it’s a new normal that lasts for decades, the outlook is grim.
Government should make it attractive for entrepreneurs and engineers to come up with new ideas themselves.
One can be confident that arguments to the contrary are the sort of defeatist doom-mongering up with which Johnson will not put.
We should never forget the millions of people who are “just about managing” – they will find it harder to budget over the next few months.
There should be a growth target to complement the inflation target – to drive government departments to take actions that will promote more UK activity and jobs.
Without it, we won’t be able to have better public services, less debt and lower deficits, or a fairer deal for younger people.
When he was Mayor of London, I outlined to Boris Johnson how we have the potential to become the largest economy in western Europe.
Essentially, the Solvency 2 regulations make it difficult for our pensions and insurance firms to invest in long-term, secure, fixed assets in the UK.
His biggest strength now is that to a mass of people who don’t follow politics he is a Given, A Fact – like Thatcher, Blair or the weather.
The auditorium may be dull but the fringe is not – as questions from our past haunt the future, such as: will the productivity gains come?
Against a post-pandemic background of shortages, prices rises and higher taxes, how much protest will there be over the growing size of the state?
The Chancellor will have have more money to play with than was forecast. How he uses these additional resources will tell us a great deal about his priorities.
The second in a series of articles on how the Chancellor should approach the upcoming Spring Statement.