Against a post-pandemic background of shortages, prices rises and higher taxes, how much protest will there be over the growing size of the state?
Most obviously, this complicates their Net Zero strategy; you would have expected fiscal policy increasingly to have rebalanced towards green taxes.
This can give the Tories a tremendous advantage in a democracy because the public, as a whole, does not have fixed views either.
There is nothing for productivity growth, ageing, minimum wage hikes, tailoring care to individual needs, or councils’ incentives to build more homes.
The cat of Tory tax rises has fewer than nine lives. Especially if these breach manifesto pledges and are generationally unfair.
If the Treasury gets its way, the Chancellor will score a big victory. But Ministers should watch for Labour stealing their thunder over taper rates.
Keynesian Macmillan got through four Chancellors in six years. We hope that Boosterist Johnson, who’s already lost one, doesn’t see this as a precedent.
The overseas aid and Universal Credit decisions suggest that, for the first time in a while, the cause of fiscal conservatism is gaining the upper hand.
By reminding backbenchers of manifesto commitments on debt control, he is squaring up for battles to come over the spending review.
My view is that the only way to help square this circle is to rediscover our concern for public service reform.
The problem is that spiralling spending demands quickly use up the options which voters don’t notice. Eventually you need other big sources of revenue,
But this electoral Titan has an Achilles heel – tax rises which, rather than planning or HS2, are the real threat to future Chesham & Amershams.
That schooling can improve earning potential doesn’t mean that ever-more schooling is good for all kids in the aftermath of a pandemic.
Which is what comes of the virtue-signalling practice of setting targets in law, rather than having MPs vote on expenditure.Â
Delivering our popular and bold programme will require better instrumentation, clearer goals and new ways of working.