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Today’s polls reveal some interesting things about the early days of Johnson’s premiership – and hint at the battles to come.
Lessons endure from my polling study of our new Prime Minister, carried out six years ago when he was London’s Mayor.
It found Johnson on 67 per cent, Hunt on 29 per cent and “Other” on four per cent. Our next two surveys were closer to a YouGov poll.
Our pre-Commons stage take was that Johnson is best placed to do so on time. As ballot papers are returned, we stick by that judgement.
A week ago, we reported that, were Brexit delivered, Johnson would perform better in such an election. Hunt has now overhauled him on the same measure.
The evidence suggests that what would most improve this terminal score is delivering Brexit – not a new leader.
Amongst the hopefuls, he fares best on account of his competence, his ability to handle Brexit, manage the economy and unite the country.
Don’t imagine that the Party could be pushed into single figures in a national poll and then bounce back to beat Labour a few months later.
No one has a prayer of bringing voters back to the Party if they don’t get on their knees and beg for forgiveness from the electorate.
A basic problem remains unaltered – that there is no Commons majority for a No Deal Brexit. This point has been well made by Ann Widdecombe.
Conservative MPs should not sit idly by as their party’s ratings sink to the mid-30s and below. There’s reason to think the change isn’t temporary.
The Centre for Social Justice (CSJ) is today releasing a report that brings a level-headedness to the debate that is sorely needed.