I’ve been nervous after last time – but here goes. Plus: Farage is having a dreadful campaign. And why election night TV will never be the same again.
The visit has the potential to be an electoral gift to an increasingly desperate Labour Party. For Downing Street, a successful trip by the President will be one that causes as few political headlines as possible.
But my latest 4,000-sample poll, conducted between Friday and Monday, finds little change in the overall picture,
At the last election strong early poll leads seduced them into shifting resources from marginals into far more hostile territory, with disastrous results.
Their MRP projection has the Scottish Nationalists picking up several seats, often by narrow margins, which would surprise those on the ground.
We say again that there is a danger of Conservative expectations getting ahead of the electoral facts.
When forced to choose, people prefer a Boris Johnson government to a Corbyn government by a ten-point margin, down from 12 points last week.
And: the Conservatives hide their own manifesto away. The LibDems bungle theirs – which Prince Andrew wrecks anyway. Plus: election night line-ups.
The campaign feels better run, including online. People massively prefer Boris Johnson to Corbyn. The question is whether it is enough
Gimmicks and bribes are not the answer. Prosperity will be achieved if free entreprise is allowed to thrive.
Together with my weekly focus groups, it will help to explain the dynamics of the campaign and the factors that will determine the outcome.
Our answer is: a steady lead and a late wobble – to help get the vote out. He begins the second week on course.
The second piece in our series this week about what the Conservative Manifesto should look like.
With so many disillusioned with politicians of all parties the role of self-defeating expectations comes into play.