One week after Labour’s Black Saturday, an ICM survey for tomorrow’s Sunday Telegraph puts the Conservatives on 43%; 7% ahead of Labour. ICM haven’t put the Conservatives at such a level since before Black Wednesday, in 1992. Such a result would give David Cameron’s Conservatives a single figure majority in the Commons. The LibDems would […]
Adrian Pepper of Crosby Textor Pepper and The Telegraph’s Andrew Pierce reveal some interesting details of a poll conducted of the 112 most marginal Labour and LibDem seats, that included the names of local party candidates: If Brown had gone for an election the Conservatives would have taken 13 of these seats from the LibDems […]
I have not had this poll confirmed authoritatively but it comes from a usually good source. This Ipsos-MORI survey for The Sun suggests that the lead identified by YouGov at the weekend has been maintained. The Blackpool party conference bounce has hardened because of the effect of ‘Brown’s Black Saturday’. More in the morning… 8.15am […]
Four-fifths of the questioning for this Populus survey for The Times was undertaken before Brown made his non-election announcement. It does not capture the announcement’s fallout, therefore. Two things are clear from the poll, however: The LibDems are in trouble. First Ming lost support to Labour and he’s now losing it to the Conservatives. Populus […]
Channel 4 has just revealed that a YouGov poll for the Sunday Times puts the Conservatives 3% ahead of Labour. The real movement is in the collapse of the LibDems, however. Will Messrs Huhne and Clegg have the courage to act? Added on Sunday morning:
The Conservative announcement on inheritance tax is credited for the Tory surge according Labour sources quoted in The Guardian. An ICM poll for that newspaper puts the Conservatives on 38% – just 1% behind Labour level with Labour. The LibDems are on 16%. Earlier this evening we noted a Populus poll showing the Conservatives facing […]
An hour ago we reported that Labour’s lead had shrunk to 4% in a YouGov/ Channel 4 survey. A Populus survey for The Times confirms the trend. Labour are on 39% (down 2%) and the Tories are on 36% (up 5%). The LibDems are on 15% (down 2%). Other findings: He has what it takes […]
A YouGov survey for tonight’s Channel 4 News has Labour’s lead down to 4%. Labour are on 40% (down 3%) and the Conservatives are on 36% (up 4%). The LibDems are on 13% (down 2%). My guess is that excluding the Conference bounce Labour’s underlying lead is approximately 6% to 8%. Last week’s 11% lead […]
A poll for The Observer by Ipsos-MORI shows Labour 7% ahead. A week ago the same pollster gave Labour an 8% advantage. Although the headline deficit is better than other recent surveys, the underlying numbers remain worrying for the Conservatives. When it comes to handling a crisis Brown has a 60% to 13% advantage over […]
Greetings from Blackpool! Horrible journey via train but I’m here in the Imperial Hotel. Surrounded by ‘It’s time for change’ slogans on a black background. The photo on the right is of a beermat circulating around the Imperial Hotel: Gordon Brown – Disturbingly Expensive. The Press Association is reporting that the party will promise to […]
A Populus poll for The Times gives Labour a 10% lead – nearly matching the YouGov survey for today’s Telegraph. I’m sure that Labour does have a real lead but opinion polls taken during party conference season can mislead. Last year in the weekend between the Tory and Labour conferences the main parties were both […]
According to another YouGov poll – for tomorrow’s Telegraph – Gordon Brown is maintaining the 11% lead that he won in the immediate afterglow of his speech to Labour Conference. Both major parties lose 1% to the LibDems compared to the YouGov/ Channel 4 survey. Here are the other main poll findings: 45% say that […]
A YouGov poll of 1,341 voters for Channel 4 News gives Labour an 11% lead. It’s obviously not good news! But… 1. Most of Labour’s gain is from the LibDems. The Tories are actually on the same standing as they were in the YouGov survey for last Saturday’s Telegraph. If an autumn election doesn’t happen […]
Listed in the graphic on the right are some of the factors that may lead Gordon Brown to think again about a snap autumn election. Another risk factor should be added to that list this morning. This morning, The Sun launches a full-blooded campaign to give the British people a say on the draft EU […]
A new opinion poll gives Labour an 8% lead. MORI for The Sun put Labour on 42%, the Tories on 34% and the LibDems (with a negative conference bounce) on 14%. The previous MORI survey – at the start of the month – had Labour 5% ahead. It’s now going to be difficult for Brown […]