Two extreme versions of what happens next in Britain. Events are more likely to end up somewhere in the middle.
The theoretical aim of policy then should be bridging over what is hopefully a short pause in activity – eliminating near-term distress for households and businesses.
The implications of the crisis are such that Johnson and Sunak need not so much to think outside the box as to trample it to tatters altogether.
It may be necessary, given the Coronavirus, and could even work. But Britain has a long, long record of state spending failing to turbo-charge growth.
We can’t continue to favour projects such as Crossrail over developing infrastructure in other parts of the country which generate much greater relative returns.
A home-focused industrial policy hardly saved China from this epidemic. And openness and markets ensure diversity of supply – particularly in medicine and food.
At the least, we can expect reduced growth worldwide – and a more expansionary Budget next month.
My answer would be “maybe, provided the spending or tax cuts significantly improved our growth potential.”
Ministers have been asked to push the Government’s priorities – tackling crime, funding the NHS, “levelling up”. How can these be effected without faster growth?
If Britain joined in a moment of self-doubt, it voted out as a confident, self-assured, optimistic, outward-looking and independent nation state.
Measuring people’s incomes needs to be part of measuring progress – but we need to be careful, because different measures give different results.
This is the final article in a three-part series on using technology to boost our economy after Brexit.
The co-Chair of the Government’s Building Better, Building Beautiful Commission wraps up our mini-series on housing.
This new government seems to want to concentrate its energies on giving Britain a cutting edge. Will it succeed where others have failed?
The Chancellor’s measures leave us well prepared to tackle its short-term challenges as well as helping to shape the long-term trajectory of the economy.