UPDATE: A peril of blogging under time pressure. I have mis-represented the Policy Exchange June 2009 paper. That argued for £100bn of cuts in underlying spending, with £55-£65bn in cuts in total spend. Its recommendation is thus much closer to what is now planned than I suggested in the Original Post. *** I’ve been […]
The Autumn Statement announces that George Osborne is going to miss his deficit reduction target, the central defining purpose of the government and binding force of the Coalition. In the Emergency Budget last year, he committed to eliminating the structural current deficit by 2015/6 – the final Budget of the Parliament. The OBR report released […]
Eurozone policymakers are running out of ideas, and have taken to repeating old ones louder. In financial markets, some think that in the end the ECB will print and there will be very high inflation. Many others (including in the British political establishment) think there will be mass defaulting either leading to or as a […]
As some of us have been pointing out for years, the real threat to the euro was always the bailouts, and never that countries would not be bailed out. The existential threat to the euro was always that if it became an exercise of wealthy and disciplined countries paying for the laxity and errors of others, those wealthy countries would decide […]
George Osborne’s autumn statement on November 29th will necessitate an extremely challenging and important judgement call. The Bank of England, along with virtually all other serious economic forecasters, has downgraded Britain’s 2011 and 2012 growth forecasts. Alongside the autumn statement, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) will publish its latest assessment of the government’s fiscal […]
It is time to review the nature and functioning of the Coalition. The Coalition Agreeement may have said much about the Conservative and Lib Dem parties finding common ground, but in truth everyone knows that the Coalition deal came down to three things: The Lib Dems supported (and contributed to) plans to cut spending and […]
Bruce Anderson identifies me, along with Iain Martin and Patrick Mercer, as one of his “belly-aching” right-wing pundits who should trust Cameron, Osborne, and Hague, and let them get on with their “daunting task”. First, I should remark that, if I am doubtful that I deserve to be mentioned alongside men as worthy as Iain […]
Many commentators understand that Germany objects to the ECB engaging in mass purchases of Italian and Spanish government debts. However, most are rather hazy as to exactly why. Most of them write as if the German people had a semi-irrational fear of inflation, going back to the hyperinflations of the 1920s and 1940s, and fear […]
Some commentators write about the disorderly collapse of the euro as if it would be an event somewhat more serious than the collapse of the ERM in 1992/3. I regard it as an event somewhat less serious than the collapse of the Roman Empire. Perhaps there could be a way of dissolving the euro, fairly […]
At Conservative Party Conference, George Osborne announced that the Treasury would be investigating credit easing. Credit for this initiative was widely attributed to Sam Gyimah MP, who had launched a consultation on alternatives to bank lending for businesses earlier in the year. Subsequently it was announced that Sir John Gieve and I had joined an advisory […]
Here are the alternatives for the UK with respect to Europe: A) Repatriate powers, soon;B) Leave. The position of desiring to repatriate is now (as it has been for some time) the Europhile position. The position of those such as Nick Clegg and Ed Miliband that oppose all repatriation of powers will have only one […]
By Andrew Lilico Events have really kicked off in Greece in the past day or so. On Monday the Greek Prime Minister announced there would be a referendum in January over whether Greece should accept the new Eurozone deal. Opinion polls suggest 80% of Greeks oppose the deal, but 70% want to stay in the […]
By Andrew Lilico Lord Ashcroft tells us to "Turn down the volume on Europe or lose the next election". Matthew d'Ancona condemns the events surrounding the EU referendum debate as "self-harm" and argues that the Conservatives appear not to be ready to be a party of government. For years, Cameron and Hague have feared the […]
By Andrew Lilico In 2001, 2005, and 2010, I campaigned for a party that had, in its manifesto, a commitment to repatriate powers from the EU. I listened to Conservative potential candidate after candidate assure selection meeting after selection meeting that this was a conscience issue for them, that though Conservatives had let down their […]
David Cameron has been widely quoted today, asking for more German action to save the euro. He appears to have two key things in mind: first, that the Germans should drop their opposition to the European Central Bank directly engaging in even larger purchases of Italian debt than the tens of billions it has already purchased; and […]