What a sudden and strange shift we've seen in the last week. For no obvious reason, Conservatives have become gloomy about their electoral prospects. Four months ago, at the party conference, I was virtually derided for arguing that winning an absolute majority was an almost impossible mountain to climb. Now, we read on this site, […]
For the past few years, Boris has looked like a likely two-term Mayor of London. He has surprised many skeptics with his seriousness of purpose even while amusing and thoroughly charming them. Now two polls (from YouGov on Friday and ComRes yesterday) show Ken sneaking a 2% lead to win the showdown on May 3rd. […]
The polling in 2011 provided a clear and consistent picture of the political landscape. Five points are salient: People believe that we do need the cuts; they don't like them, they think they are a bit unfair and hurting the economy, but consistently they say they are neccessary – moreover, they blame the heritage of […]
Two really important things happened last week, contrasting moments of genuinely historic importance. The first, unmissably dramatic, drew immediate strong reactions from many millions, here and abroad; the second was almost entirely unnoticed, back-stage. Both were of shattering political impact, but in different ways and measured on very different scales. The first, of course, was […]
Although Ed Miliband has had some successes (for example, I wrote here about his prize-winning phrase ‘the squeezed middle’), and he is undoubtedly a serious-minded and committed politician, it’s not unfair to say that he has failed to convince the electorate that he is a potential Prime Minister. A recent YouGov/ Sunday Times poll showed […]
A poll conducted by YouGov between 4th and 7th November in four EU countries (a little-noticed poll, perhaps because it was conducted for our own site) showed the significant respect enjoyed by Angela Merkel. We asked the question: “How much confidence do you have in the following European leaders to make the necessary decisions to […]
Beset by an increasing sense of confusion and crisis, the main actors in the Euro drama look dazed. People are wringing their hands and saying: "For heaven's sake sort it out", as if it were just a matter of manly application. If we had a recognisable strategy on Europe, one could refer to it, maybe […]
Sometimes I go a whole week without picking up any political news (or indeed any news at all outside of the business I run). When I then go through my Twitter feed – a small assortment of science, art, economics, football and new media feeds plus a handful of commentaries from my political friends – […]
Who do the Conservatives need to target to win the next election? What is the latest version of Mondeo Man? Actually, David Cameron is doing less well with the opposite sex, so maybe it’s more like Worcester Women, or Soccer Moms? These ‘micro groups’ are beloved of a certain type of pundit, but are they […]
I return to the question of the next election, even though it is far away. Our view of what will happen then determines, to a great extent, what we do now. There is a reverse domino effect which means imagined future events cascade backwards to influence the present. At the moment, Conservatives are calm, almost […]
Conservatives are more radical than progressives. That is the conclusion from poll we published yesterday about desire for major changes in public services. OK, no surprise really, as Conservatives will view 'change' as undoing decades of leftist drift. On average across the areas we surveyed, 42% of Conservative voters, 32% of Labour voters, and 30% […]
It may seem too early to be considering strategies for the 2015 campaign, but today's electoral maths makes an overall a majority a mountain to climb, so if that's the destination, the preparations for the ascent need to be laid pretty soon. There are many who believe a robust majority for the Conservatives is nearly […]
As an employer I should be pleased. The nation’s smartest young people are desperately competing to work for free. And top Oxbridge graduates will bite your hand off to do piece-work for less than £50 a day – even on spec. They need a bit of money, not much pride, and something to put on […]
Will the Eurozone leaders do what cold analysis tells them is right? Or will they dodge and fudge as they try to navigate the contradictions of popular and elite opinion? What kind of leadership – if any – will they exercise? Is real leadership even possible these days? It is not only the current financial […]