“A new recession in Britain is ‘almost inevitable’ and increasing public spending without hiking taxes risks disaster, the economic watchdog warned today. The Office for Budget Responsibility said a range of risks confronted Britain and Brexit heightened the ‘likelihood and impact’ of some of them. It warned ministers that bowing to public pressure to open up the spending taps without paying for it via new taxes would ‘only add to the longer-term challenges’. The organisation said because debt was still at historically high levels since the financial crisis, the economy was ‘much more sensitive’ to ‘interest rate and inflation surprises’.” – Daily Mail
Comment:
>Today: ToryDiary: Ministers should listen to the OBR, not chase after Corbyn
>Yesterday: Garvan Walshe’s column: The Taylor review is a distraction. The real problem facing Britain is that our Welfare State is bust.
“The RAF is to make history by becoming the first branch of the British Armed Forces to accept women to all roles in a “defining moment”. The Defence Secretary Sir Michael Fallon has announced even close combat roles will be open to both sexes from September onwards, ending a 75-year-old ban… The decision comes after a recent review of work practices, which found in terms of risks the RAF Regiment – the infantry wing of the air force – was closer to the Royal Armoured Corps, which is already admitting women to its training ranks.” – The Sun
“The Brexit Secretary last night sought to defuse the row over withdrawal from Europe’s nuclear agency. David Davis suggested he would try to secure ‘associate membership’ of Euratom, which regulates radioactive material and nuclear power plants. Remainer Tory MPs had demanded Britain stay in the agency, which is not technically part of the EU but is regulated by the European Court of Justice (ECJ) and has legal links to other EU bodies.” – Daily Mail
>Yesterday: James Arnell in Comment: Johnson is right. Brussels can go whistle for €100 billion.
“Cabinet splits over Brexit deepened yesterday as International Trade Secretary Dr Liam Fox said he only backed a transition period of “a few months”. This puts him at odds with Cabinet rivals Philip Hammond and David Davis. The Chancellor wants to keep existing trade arrangements with the EU for at least four years to avoid a “cliff edge” while the Brexit Secretary says it should be up to three years. But this would make Dr Fox all-but redundant because Britain is barred from signing new trade deals until we quit the customs union. Last year he warned that entering into a transitional period would risk “diminishing” the will of the British people in the referendum.” – The Sun
“At least 15 Conservative MPs are in talks with Labour about a deal which could keep Britain signed up to free movement after Britain leaves the European Union, the Telegraph can disclose. The Tory MPs could back a plan to keep the UK in the European Economic Area after Brexit which would require the UK to accept unlimited numbers of migrants from within the EU. The news came as the Government published legislation which will repatriate thousands of Brussels powers to London after Britain leaves the EU in March 2019.” – Daily Telegraph
More immigration:
>Yesterday: Fraser Galloway in Comment: Sturgeon’s ‘compromise’ on single market membership is nothing of the kind
“The Liberal Democrats pretend that they are crusading to protect workers’ rights, although the bill does just that, and are using it as an excuse to dilute Brexit by lumbering Britain with as much European regulation as possible after it leaves. Labour is still trying to be seen to voters in the North of England as the party which embraces Brexit, but in Parliament is gearing up to sabotage it as it can’t resist the temptation of getting one over the Tories. The “Great” Repeal Bill deserves to be known as such for the huge role it will play in the Brexit process, even if that will not be its name on the item of legislation… This is why Remainers are doing everything they can to delay its passage and dilute it. If they succeed in watering it down, they’ll hope to make sure that Brexit means not much change at all.” – Daily Telegraph
Editorial:
>Today: Richard Ekins in Comment: The Charter of Fundamental Rights gives judges too much power, and is bad for accountable government
“David Cameron today calls on young Brits of every religion to sign up to his National Citizen Service to help fight extremism. Writing for The Sun today, the former PM extols his holiday camps as a new way to tackle hatred which leads to terrorism. As well as building confidence for disadvantaged teens, the holiday courses have taken on another powerful significance after the devastating Manchester and London Bridge attacks, Mr Cameron argues. They do a vital job of bringing together kids from different races and backgrounds.” – The Sun
“Theresa May has said that she “shed a little tear” and was hugged by her husband, Philip, when he told her about the exit poll that predicted she was about to lose her majority. The prime minister said that she was superstitious about watching the exit poll so let Mr May break the news to her, she revealed in an interview with Emma Barnett on BBC Radio 5 Live. In an indication that she shies away from bad news, she said that her husband also has to read critical newspaper articles to her. In her first extended interview since the result, Mrs May said that she had been devastated by the outcome of the vote on June 8, which had come as a complete shock.” – The Times (£)
>Yesterday: ToryDiary: After a turbulent year, May still has a chance to influence how history will remember her
“The UK government has announced further delays to its much-criticised plans to digitise the tax system for businesses. Its original Making Tax Digital programme would have forced all but the UK’s smallest businesses to start online quarterly reporting to the UK tax authority from April 2018. Then in March, the government announced a one-year deferral for businesses with turnover below the £85,000 VAT threshold. The Treasury announced significant new modifications on Thursday. Businesses below the VAT threshold will no longer be forced to move their tax reporting online. Instead, they will be able to do so “at a pace that is right for them”, although it did not rule out making digital reporting mandatory in future.” – FT
“Labour last night refused to commit to investigate one of its members who crudely insulted Yvette Cooper and called her a “busted flush”. The Reel Politik, an account run by three left-wing activists, published a picture last week of the former shadow home secretary and chairwoman of the home affairs select committee on a train on Twitter… Ms Cooper, who finished third in the 2015 Labour leadership election, has condemned online abuse, saying attacks on the Labour MP Luciana Berger were “unacceptable” and “utterly shameful”, and defended the BBC’s political editor Laura Kuenssberg from “the vitriol poured out from all sides”.” – The Times (£)
More Labour: