By Tim Montgomerie
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Nearly 200 Tory activists were in Eastleigh yesterday and successfully delivered a first leaflet drop for Maria Hutchings. One source told me that the party was delighted to have got ahead of the Liberal Democrats who only selected their candidate – a local councillor – yesterday evening.
The race is certainly going to be close. On Friday a poll commissioned by Lord Ashcroft found that the Tories were 3% ahead with UKIP in fourth place. A new poll by Survation for today's Mail on Sunday gives the LIb Dems an equally narrow lead and puts UKIP in third place. Its headline numbers are:
Other findings from the poll:
The by-election will likely be won or lost on who has the best get-out-the-vote operation and whether the Tories are more successful at squeezing UKIP or the LIbDems are more effective at squeezing Labour.
More from Survation here.